Just 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or a cause of the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
According to Opta, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
